STORM FORECAST
VALID Fri 31 Mar 06:00 - Sat 01 Mar 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 30 Mar 21:43 (UTC)
FORECASTER: TUSCHY

A threat level 1 is forecast across SW United Kingdom and SE Ireland

A threat level 1 is forecast across SE Germany,central and eastern Austria and parts of Hungary,Slovakia and the Czech Republic

SYNOPSIS

Broad southwesterly flow impacts most parts of western and central Europe... Slow eastward drift of strong depression ( located straight to the west of Ireland ) will help to strengthen ridging over southern and central Europe, although only marginal geopotential height rises are forecasted.
Most parts of eastern Europe continue to experience cool and stable weather conditions.

DISCUSSION

...SW United Kingdom and SE Ireland...
A strong depression is currently approaching Ireland and United Kingdom form the west, placing the highlighted area in a broad SW flow...Warm front is forecasted to cross Ireland and United Kingdom during the afternoon hours from the SW towards the NE... While warm front will move further towards the NE, cold front( organizing over Ireland during the afternoon hours ) should start to affect the area of interest from west towards the east during the early evening hours....So there finally should be two rounds for possible severe TSTM development mainly in the level 1 area.

Warm sector is forecasted to be weakly unstable with low-end instability values ( SBCAPE locally up to 300 J/kg with bullseye of instability over Ireland )... Low level and deep layer shear will be enhanced and there will be a risk for severe wind gusts and one or two tornadoes .

Next round of severe TSTM development should evolve in conjunction with the eastward propagating cold front....Again...enhanced shear and SRH - 1km values (about 150-200 m^2/s^2 ) would pose a risk for isolated tornadoes and severe wind gust reports.

...SE Germany,central and eastern Austria and parts of Hungary,Slovakia and the Czech Republic...
Pool of colder mid-level airmass will reach Germany during the early morning hours, moving eastward....Low-end instability should develop in a polar airmass ( characterized by uncapped conditions and low LCLs)... Being placed in the left exit region of a strong mid-/upper level jet streak should yield enough lift for scattered showers/TSTMs to develop/go on during the morning hours over central and southern Germany....Low level shear strong enough for an enhanced risk for a couple of funnel clouds/ one or two short lived tornadoes, but main risk looks like to be a severe wind gust risk ( due to a strong westerly low level jet).

Instability field will strengthen during the noon and afternoon hours over a broad area east of Germany (SBCAPE values up to 200 J/kg)...Conditions seem to be favorable for scattered TSTMs to develop in a weakly capped polar airmass with strong low level shear and low LCLs, so main threat will be a few funnel clouds/short lived tornadoe and severe wind gust reports and also marginal hail....Although there is a broad area of favorable kinematic parameters, main area of interest looks like to be the level 1 area , where significantly enhanced deep layer shear and low level shear overlap with low-end instability values.

...southern France...
Broad area of pressure falls over southern France , NE Spain and the western Mediterranean should help for scattered TSTMs to develop in the highlighted area during the late evening hours.... Marginal instability and only low kinematic values should yield only a conditional severe TSTM risk, but area has to be monitored in later model runs if more instability and stronger shear can develop.

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